Publications

Seeing Culture: A Benchmark for Visual Reasoning and Grounding
Burak Satar, Zhixin Ma, Patrick, Wilfried Ariel Mulyawan · SMU Multimedia Lab
EMNLP 2025 Main paper arXiv code data site
Designing LQ45 Stock Trading Strategies with Machine Learning
Wilfried Ariel Mulyawan · Institut Teknologi Bandung
Bachelor Thesis · 2025 thesis

Working papers

LLM-Driven Households in HANK Economies
Under review · WINE 2026
Where Liability Lands When Automated Trading Systems Cause Harm: An Auditable, Multi-Coder Map of the Enforcement Record
Under review · AAAI-27
Auditing Entity Redaction in Retrospective LLM Scoring: A Randomized Token Ablation and a Provenance Anomaly
Under review · AAAI-27
When Robustness Checks Aren't Enough: Capacity, Signal, and Implementation Confounds in Adversarial Evaluation
Under review · AAAI-27
Raw Error-Correlation Levels Do Not Identify Monoculture in Binary Forecasts: Null-Specification Sensitivity in LLM Forecast Ensembles
Under review · AAAI-27
Who's Behind the Wallet? On-Chain Behavioral Fingerprinting of Algorithmic Traders in Decentralized Prediction Markets
Under review · ICAIF '26
Oracle Latency and Algorithmic Concentration in DeFi Lending
Under review · ICAIF '26
When Drift Does Not Warrant Retraining: A Held-Out Test for In-Context Adaptation versus Retraining in Markets
Under review · ICAIF '26
Robust Aggregation, Not Projection: Certifying the Forecast Benefit in Online Portfolio Selection under Corrupted Ensemble Hints
Under review · ICAIF '26
The Missing Baseline: Cross-Asset Imbalance Gains in Crypto Nowcasting Are Redundant Given Peer Returns
Under review · ICAIF '26
Measuring Forgetting or Reading Capacity? Procedure-Matched Retrain Nulls for Auditing Unlearning in Gradient-Boosted Credit Models
Under review · ICAIF '26

Projects

Company Brain
Giving a company its own self-evolving agents, ones that carry the firm's accumulated context and adapt to how that particular firm actually works rather than to a generic default.
Self-evolving LLM trading agents
Agents that propose, test, promote and retire their own trading strategies under pre-set statistical gates, where the research question is when automated adaptation starts to degrade and what governance keeps it bounded.
Cross-venue arbitrage
Pricing the same contract on two venues that disagree, and capturing the gap where the disagreement is structural rather than a fee artifact.

Recent

Aug 2026

Wrapped up my run at Arbital after eight months, to focus on the PhD.

May 2026

PhD offer accepted. Joining GIFTS Lab, NTU (Global Institute of Finance, Technology, and Society).

May 2026

Stepped up to Head of Quantitative at Arbital.

Dec 2025

Joined Arbital (Y Combinator 2026) as Portfolio Manager, working on perpetual DEX market making and on-chain prediction markets.

Nov 2025

Seeing Culture presented at EMNLP 2025 Main Conference.

Sep 2024

Nearly dropped out of university due to unwanted circumstances. Funny in retrospect :)

Aug 2023

IISMA Awardee. 1 of 14 selected from 12,000+ applicants for a fully funded exchange semester at NTUST, Taiwan.